The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed again. IMF PortWatch recorded only 15 transit calls on July 19, with the seven-day moving average falling to 12.14. Normal traffic is roughly 80 to 90 ships per day. Brent closed above $100, the 10-year Treasury yield touched 4.7%, and futures markets put the odds of a September Fed hike above 80%. The macro environment has deteriorated quickly.
Bitcoin is holding near $65,000 and remains up roughly 3% this week. When the Strait was supposed to reopen on June 19, Bitcoin closed around $63,500. The price is approximately 2.3% higher today, despite renewed fighting, rising oil, higher interest rates, and the return of inflation concerns.
This relative strength is very interesting. Bitcoin has spent much of the year trading like another leveraged risk asset, yet it is now holding firm as several traditional macro indicators flash redder every week. An asset created outside sovereign control is showing strength while warlords play chess with human lives in the Middle East. Pray for peace.