Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is recovering from the near-zero levels reached in June, but the waterway remains severely impaired. Before the war, the strait routinely handled roughly 50 to 100 transit calls per day. The seven-day moving average reached only 32.14 as of July 5, with 34 ships transiting that day. Even the recent high of 52 on June 24 remained well below normal activity.
Meanwhile, the political agreement is unraveling. The United States and Iran have resumed strikes, commercial vessels have been attacked, and President Trump has declared the ceasefire “over,” called Iran’s leaders “scum,” and questioned whether he wants another deal. This is no longer a clean path toward normalization. It is a live military confrontation around the chokepoint responsible for moving more than 20 million barrels of oil per day.
The global economy cannot tolerate a prolonged disruption of this magnitude. A resolution will come through negotiation, military force, or some uncomfortable combination of the two. The timing is impossible to predict, but the pressure for normal passage increases every day the strait operates at a fraction of its prewar capacity.
Risk assets will rip on any headline suggesting the strait is reopening, real or fake.