The Strait of Hormuz being closed continues to be the only macro factor that matters for markets. It is impossible to calculate the potential impacts of any other piece of geopolitical news when 20% of the world’s oil is not moving from buyers to sellers. The ceasefire to open the Strait has resulted in a doubly-closed Strait, with a rumor that fees for safe passage are being charged in bitcoin. Very interesting from a bitcoin adoption and narrative perspective, but until meaningful volume of shipping activity returns to the Strait, the macro overhang for all assets, including bitcoin, is far heavier than any positive uplift from the news of the possibility that some people are beginning to understand the value proposition of a neutral, censorship-resistant, monetary network.
Scott Marmoll · April 17, 2026