Arthur Hayes agrees, the Strait of Hormuz is the only thing that matters in macro, for the time being. He lays out 4 possible paths forward, none of which are particularly rosy. Once the Strait reopens, and depending on how, the real story and focus will again be on the fact that AI is coming for white-collar cash flows while the credit system still assumes those incomes will be there to service debt. People keep treating AI as a tech theme when it is really a labor, credit, and fiscal story.
I have been saying some version of this for a while: if the earning power of the professional class starts getting hollowed out, the State will not (cannot!) sit back and admire the cleansing power of free markets. It will subsidize, backstop, refinance, and print money to patch the hole. That is the path of least resistance in a democracy addicted to debt. The bullish case for bitcoin does not require utopia. It requires policymakers behaving exactly the way they always behave when the bill comes due.