The January FOMC minutes dropped this week, and buried in the usual bureaucratic language was an interesting comment: several officials suggested the Fed may need to raise rates if inflation remains above target. The fracturing of consensus at the Fed is evidence of the system breaking down. It's no longer clear what direction Fed policy needs to go because it's no longer clear that the US has the power to print unlimited money without consequence. The world is waking up to the Ponzi scheme of the fiat system, and inflation and real interest rates are rising as investors seek safe have hard assets. The value of assets all over the world continue to swing wildly based on the comments and positioning of a handful of people in Washington who cannot decide which direction they want to go.
Kevin Warsh takes the chair in May and has already signaled he wants cuts, but even his own historical behavior betrays the idea that there will be a clear and confident rate cutting program under his leadership. Trump wants cuts, and does not seem to care about historical precedent for Fed independence. The current committee is talking about hikes, the new Fed chair in May is on record in the height of the global financial crisis recession calling for higher for longer rate policy. The only certainty is uncertainty. If all this does not sound very 'free market capitalism' to you, you are right. The price of money should not be set by committee.