Bitcoin Roundup

Fed minutes show officials grappling with policy split, impact of AI on economy

The January FOMC minutes dropped this week, and buried in the usual bureaucratic language was an interesting comment: several officials suggested the Fed may need to raise rates if inflation remains above target. The fracturing of consensus at the Fed is evidence of the system breaking down. It’s no longer clear what direction Fed policy needs to go because it’s no longer clear that the US has the power to print unlimited money without consequence. The world is waking up to the Ponzi scheme of the fiat system, and inflation and real interest rates are rising as investors seek safe have hard assets. The value of assets all over the world continue to swing wildly based on the comments and positioning of a handful of people in Washington who cannot decide which direction they want to go. Kevin Warsh takes the chair in May and has already signaled he wants cuts, but even his own historical behavior betrays the idea that there will be a clear and confident rate cutting program under his leadership. Trump wants cuts, and does not seem to care about historical precedent for Fed independence. The current committee is talking about hikes, the new Fed chair in May is on record in the height of the global financial crisis recession calling for higher for longer rate policy. The only certainty is uncertainty. If all this does not sound very "free market capitalism" to you, you are right. The price of money should not be set by committee.

Bitcoin sinks to $66,000, U.S. stocks lose steam as Fed minutes mention possible rate hike

Bitcoin is now staring at its fifth consecutive weekly loss, the worst streak since the 2022 bear market that bottomed in the $16k range. It has fallen roughly 47% from the October all-time high above $126k and briefly tested $66k this week before the hawkish Fed minutes poured more cold water on risk assets. The Fear and Greed Index is in "extreme fear" territory. CNBC is running crypto winter segments. If you have been around bitcoin for more than one cycle, none of this is new. The narrative flips from euphoria to obituary faster than any other asset on the planet. Five months ago the consensus target was $200k to $1M a coin in the next 18 months. Now the consensus is pain. Bitcoin does not care about consensus. Dollar cost average, hold in cold storage, and check back in a year.

Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Massive Gold Reserve Accumulation

Central banks around the world have added nearly 2,000 tonnes of gold to their reserves since 2020, with China leading at over 350 tonnes followed by Poland, Turkey, and India. Gold has surged more than 230% over that period. These are the same institutions that issue the fiat currencies they are quietly hedging against. When central banks buy gold at this pace, they are telling you something about the future of their own product. They are de-dollarizing, diversifying, and accumulating the one asset that has no counterparty risk and cannot be printed. Sound familiar? Gold is the establishment's bitcoin. Bitcoin is the people's gold. The trend is the same. The timeline is just different.